Sunday, April 27, 2025

Keys & Contracts Sunday Edition ~ Vol 2


Welcome to the 2nd edition of Keys & Contracts Sunday Edition, Which your Sunday deep-dive into Maryland’s real estate market. This edition will unpack the latest statewide trends, spotlight key local markets in Anne Arundel, Prince George’s, Calvert, and Charles counties, and look ahead with expert forecasts for the remainder of 2025. The Maryland housing scene is experiencing a spring of mixed signals – here’s what you need to know.

Key Takeaways

  • Maryland Home Sales Cool Off: Statewide home sales fell about 10% year-over-year in March 2025. Buyers have pulled back slightly compared to last spring, partly due to higher borrowing costs and affordability challenges.

  • Prices Still Rising (Modestly): Despite slower sales, home prices continue to inch up. Maryland’s median sales price hit $420,000 in March, up ~3.7% from $405,000 last year. Price growth has moderated to the low-single-digits, a far cry from the double-digit surges of the pandemic boom.

  • Inventory Remains Tight: The supply of homes for sale is still historically low. Active listings statewide numbered ~11,173 in March, slightly below last year. That equates to roughly 2.0 months of inventory – indicating a persistent seller’s market.

  • Mortgage Rates Hover Around 6–7%: Mortgage rates have leveled off in the mid-6% range this spring, after peaking above 7% in 2024. Forecasts expect average 30-year rates ~6.3% for 2025, a slight improvement from last year.

  • Local Markets Show Mixed Trends: Real estate conditions vary by county. Anne Arundel County is seeing quick sales and solid price gains, while Prince George’s County has experienced a sharp drop in sales and flat prices. Meanwhile, Calvert County’s prices surged double-digits amid low supply, and Charles County actually had a slight increase in sales as more listings hit the market.

Maryland Statewide Market Overview

Sales Slowing, but No Price Decline: Maryland’s housing market has come off the boil compared to the frenzy of recent years. In March, total home sales were down 10% from a year ago, reflecting slower buyer activity. High mortgage rates and affordability concerns are the main culprits. Even so, prices have not fallen. The statewide median sale price was up 3–4% year-over-year in March, and the average price ($488k) rose about 3.2%. Demand has cooled just enough to slow sales, but not enough to push prices down.

Inventory Crunch Continues: Maryland’s supply of homes for sale remains very tight by historical standards. Statewide, that's only about 2 months’ supply at the current sales pace, well below a normal balanced market (5-6 months). New listings also fell ~8% from last year. Many owners are sitting on low-rate mortgages and not moving, keeping the number of homes for sale chronically low. Well-priced homes tend to draw competition even in a slower sales environment.

Mortgage Rates and Affordability: After the rapid run-up in rates last year, mortgage costs have stabilized. As of late April 2025, a 30-year fixed rate hovers around 6.3–6.5% on average. Rates are still roughly double what they were pre-2022, so affordability remains a hurdle. Higher financing costs combined with home prices ~60% above 2019 levels nationally mean many first-time buyers in Maryland are stretching their budgets. Slightly lower rates and flattening prices are encouraging cautious optimism. If rates trend downward later in the year, we could see a further boost in buyer activity.

Statewide Outlook: Maryland’s market in spring 2025 is cooler than the frenzied 2021-2022 period, but it’s far from a buyer’s market. Prices are still edging up, homes are still selling relatively fast, and inventory is scarce. This sets the stage for very localized outcomes.

Local Market Highlights

Anne Arundel County

Quick Sales and Healthy Price Growth. In March 2025, 500 homes sold, a ~7% drop from last year’s pace. Despite slightly fewer transactions, competition is still robust. The median sale price jumped to $501,000, up 6.7% year-over-year, and the average price topped $600k. Homes are moving extremely fast – the median days on market was just 6 days. Active listings fell ~10% from a year ago, leaving only about 1.3 months of inventory.

Prince George’s County 

Cooling Demand and Flat Prices. Only 591 homes sold in March, down 19.7% from a year prior. Price growth has essentially stalled. The median price in March was $435,000, exactly the same as last year. Inventory has ticked down slightly, and homes are taking a bit longer to sell (median 17 days on market, up from 13 days last year).

Calvert County

Low Supply Drives Price Surge. In March, only 77 homes sold in Calvert (down 12.5% YoY). Listings are scarce and months of inventory is under 2 months. Calvert’s median sale price jumped to $450,000 in March, a 14.5% year-over-year increase. Homes are selling faster than a year ago, with a median of 9 days on market.

Charles County 

More New Listings, Stable Growth. Home sales have actually increased slightly in Charles – 185 units sold in March, up 1.1% from last year. An infusion of new listings boosted the active inventory to 421 listings. The median price was $455,390, up 2.3% YoY. Houses are taking a bit longer to sell (median 20 days on market, up from 15 days).

(Elsewhere in Maryland: Other counties mirror these mixed trends. Some rural markets like Garrett or Talbot had price jumps over 15%. The key theme is variation – local conditions depend on the balance of supply, demand, and affordability in each area.)

Expert Forecasts and 2025 Outlook

  • Mortgage Rates – Steady to Slightly Lower: The consensus is that mortgage rates will remain elevated but may inch down as the year progresses. 30-year fixed rates are expected to average about 6.3% in 2025 and end the year around 6.2%.

  • Home Prices – Slower Growth: Experts foresee continued price growth, but at a slower pace. U.S. home prices are expected to rise about 3.7% in 2025.

  • Sales Volume – Potential Uptick: After a subdued 2024, home sales might pick up slightly in 2025 if conditions improve. Inventory is the wild card; a boost would be welcome to lift sales volume.

  • Local Variations Remain: Regional experts emphasize that 2025’s market will be different depending on where you look. Some areas will stay competitive and hold firm on prices, while others may see more balanced conditions.

Advice for Homeowners, Buyers, and Sellers

  • Buyers: Be prepared and patient. Get pre-approved for your mortgage, stick to your budget, and move quickly on homes that fit your needs.

  • Sellers: It’s still your market – but be realistic. Price competitively, prep your home well, and expect negotiations to be more common.

  • Homeowners (Staying Put): Keep an eye on the market, invest in maintenance and improvements, and plan ahead if you’re considering selling in the next few years.

With spring in full swing, Maryland’s real estate market in May 2025 is at an inflection point – not as intense as recent years, but still defined by low supply and resilient prices. Staying informed is key. We hope this edition of Keys & Contracts helps you make sense of the latest trends, whether you’re unlocking the door to a new home or contracting to sell your current one. Join us next month for another deep dive into the market!

Sources:

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Location: Maryland, USA

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